Week 2 is when the picture starts to come into focus. Something happening once can be a fluke – twice, maybe a trend. Guys like Deebo Samuel, Mike Williams and Brandin Cooks have strung together back-to-back solid outings, and we can feel good about them going forward. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley and Clyde Edwards-Helaire have had back-to-back clunkers, giving legitimate reason to worry.
That said, it’s still a long season. If you started 0-2 in fantasy, there’s plenty of time to rebound, especially with the extra week in the season this year. If you took some heavy losses at the sportsbook, don’t panic – absorb the new information and continue to trust your process. We’re only just getting started, so strap in with us and we’ll get back on track.
We smashed last week: Mike Williams delivered (91 yards and a TD), Titans +5.5 cashed (with Tennessee winning outright), and Tyler Boyd/Mike Davis were reasonably successful picks for DFS play and sit, respectively. I’ll give myself half credit for those last two, so let’s call it 3 out of 4. Anyway, here is this week’s fantasy four-pack:
Start: Marvin Jones, Jaguars (vs. ARI)
Receivers on bad teams are often good for fantasy – when teams trail in a game, they throw more. Case in point: through two games, the Jaguars are seventh in pass attempts, and Jones has had 20 targets, good for 10th in the NFL. And is that going to change this week, when Trevor Lawrence tries to keep up with Kyler Murray? I think not. Jones is the clear WR1 in the Jacksonville offense through two weeks, and while that could change at some point, keep riding the hot hand for now.
Others: Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAX), Ty’Son Williams (BAL), James White (NE), Chase Edmonds (ARI), Kenny Golladay (NYG)
Sit: Corey Davis, Jets (vs. DEN)
Zach Wilson played like a unique hybrid of Nathan Peterman and blurry-vision Jameis Winston in Week 2, and while there should be better days, it doesn’t get a lot easier this week. After battling wits with Bill Belichick, the rookie gets Vic Fangio and the Broncos in Week 3. Not exactly what you want. Denver’s secondary played outstanding against the Jaguars last week, and they should feast on another rookie quarterback. Fade anyone involved with this passing game.
Others: Joe Burrow (CIN), Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel (LAR), Washington D/ST
DFS Play: Robert Woods, $5,700 (vs. TB)
You can forgive some level of skepticism about Woods through two games this season, considering Cooper Kupp has been far and away the best Rams receiver so far. But Woods had nine targets against the Colts, and this could be the week they both blow up in a matchup with the Bucs. You can’t run the ball against Tampa, but you can definitely throw – they are allowing 342 pass yards per game, which is third worst in the NFL. And in a game where there are expected to be fireworks (Vegas’ O/U is 55), taking the slight discount on Woods to get involved with the Rams’ passing game could be a fruitful endeavor. If you want to stack him with Kupp and Matthew Stafford, too, you’d get no argument from us.
If you want a cheap, high-upside play: Rondale Moore is still just $5,000, and has potential to erupt against the Jaguars’ miserable defense.
Bet: Packers +3.5 at 49ers
There is a bucket of quarterbacks that you bet on every time you’re getting more than three points. Patrick Mahomes is the obvious one, though you’ll hardly ever get a chance to bet on the Chiefs as an underdog at all. What about Aaron Rodgers? This might be the best number you’ll get the Packers at all season. The 49ers have been good – Football Outsiders currently has them as the sixth-best team in DVOA – but their injury report is looking brutal once again, with all but one of their running backs carrying some sort of designation into Sunday’s game. If this turns into a shootout between Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo, you’ll want to be on the Packers.
Bonus six-point teaser: Tease the Chiefs down from -6.5 to -0.5 for essentially a pick-em at Arrowhead against the Chargers, and tease the Falcons up from +3 to +9 against the Giants, because it’s silly that the Giants are favored against anybody.