Which NCAA teams are the current projected frontrunners?

Playoff-bound predictions

(John Reed-USA TODAY Sports)

The official 2022 College Football Playoff rankings are set to be released by the selection committee on November 2, which will escalate two popular (and heavily debated) questions:

Who’s in? Who’s out?

And thanks to the statistical wizardry at FiveThirtyEight, we’re beginning to get an overall idea of which teams stand the best chances at making the playoffs this season—based on remaining schedules, win probabilities off that, the strength of schedule, conference championship, even the selection committee’s past behavior. Basically, the works!

Using the AP Top 25 poll—until the official rankings go live—here are the 10 NCAA teams that have the best chances of making the CFP, according to that formula…

10. Arizona St. Sun Devils

(Graphics by Coley Cleary, USA TODAY SMG)

Herm Edwards has his team rolling in the Pac-12, with 538 currently giving them a 30% chance of winning the conference.

Latest chances the Sun Devils hoist the trophy in Indianapolis: 1%

9. Michigan St. Spartans

(Graphics by Coley Cleary, USA TODAY SMG)

Over to the Big 10, where Michigan St. makes its case for playoff glory. Although the Spartans’ chances of winning the conference sit at 9% at the moment, you can’t rule out their momentum.

Latest chances the Spartans hoist the trophy in Indianapolis: 2%

8. Oregon Ducks

(Graphics by Coley Cleary, USA TODAY SMG)

The Ducks took a little tumble following the OT loss to Stanford but still land in the top 10, with a 30% chance of taking the Pac-12.

Latest chances the Ducks hoist the trophy in Indianapolis: 2%

7. Michigan Wolverines

(Graphics by Coley Cleary, USA TODAY SMG)

It’s a Big 10-heavy list, with Michigan holding the No. 8 spot and an 18% chance of winning the conference.

Latest chances the Wolverines hoist the trophy in Indianapolis: 5%

6. Ohio St. Buckeyes

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Just ahead of their longtime rival, the Buckeyes have been on the upswing since losing to the Ducks and currently have a 29% chance of winning the Big 10.

Latest chances the Buckeyes hoist the trophy in Indianapolis: 8%

5. Cincinnati Bearcats

(Graphics by Coley Cleary, USA TODAY SMG)

The Bearcats are the darling of the non-Power 5, with a 68% chance of winning the American Conference—and an impressive 28% nod to make the CFP.

Latest chances the Bearcats hoist the trophy in Indianapolis: 4%

4. Iowa Hawkeyes

(Graphics by Coley Cleary, USA TODAY SMG)

Iowa took care of business against Penn St., so it’s a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way. (Arguably, Wisconsin would be the only “sneaky” test left until the conference championship, of which the Hawkeyes hold a 35% chance of winning.)

Latest chances the Hawkeyes hoist the trophy in Indianapolis: 7%

(Editor’s note: Iowa’s current percentage of making the CFP has jumped to 39%.)

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

(Graphics by Coley Cleary, USA TODAY SMG)

Alabama’s loss to Texas A&M wasn’t enough to knock the team out of the top 3, and the forecast still favors them to make some noise—a 29% chance to win the SEC, with a 40% probability they get into the CFP.

Latest chances the Crimson Tide hoist the trophy in Indianapolis: 15%

2. Oklahoma Sooners

(Graphics by Coley Cleary, USA TODAY SMG)

The Sooners survived the Red River Shootout at the Cotton Bowl and now have a 50% chance of winning the Big 12, with a highly favorable 48% chance of making the playoffs.

Latest chances the Sooners hoist the trophy in Indianapolis: 10%

1. Georgia Bulldogs

(Graphics by Coley Cleary, USA TODAY SMG)

And then, there is Georgia. Other than the Bearcats, no team in this top 10 has greater (current) chances to win its conference than the Bulldogs—and 57% in the SEC is pretty remarkable, too. The SEC East squad has a 72% chance of making the CFP as well, which is tops in the land.

Latest chances the Bulldogs hoist the trophy in Indianapolis: 34% (also tops)

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